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Are Ethiopia and Eritrea heading back to war?

By Martin Plaut Africa editor, BBC World Service Could Ethiopia's attack on alleged rebel bases over the border inside Eritrea herald the start of a new war in the Horn of Africa? Ethiopia says it carried out a

By Martin Plaut

Africa editor, BBC World Service

Could Ethiopia’s attack on alleged rebel bases over the border inside Eritrea herald the start of a new war in the Horn of Africa?

Ethiopia says it carried out a raid on three camps belonging to a rebel group last Thursday.

A further raid was reported over the weekend, although this has been denied by Ethiopian officials.

These attacks have raised fears that this could spark another border war, similar to the conflict of 1998-2000, which left some 100,000 people dead.

So far, Eritrea appears keen to cool the situation, saying it will not strike back.

Eritrea’s Minister of Information Ali Abdu told the BBC that his country would not retaliate following the Ethiopian raid.

“Those who rush to aggression are those who do not know what the life of people means,” Mr Ali said.

Ethiopian sources suggest Eritrea, increasingly isolated from the international community and short of funds, is in no position to respond effectively.

The fall of Colonel Gaddafi’s Libya deprived the Eritrean government of one of its few allies.

In December last year, the UN Security Council imposed tougher sanctions against Eritrea after its East African neighbours accused it of continuing to provide support to Somalia’s Islamist militants of al-Shabab – who Ethiopian troops are currently fighting.

This has weakened Eritrea, which once was able to confront its much larger neighbour, despite having just five million citizens, compared to the 80 million Ethiopians.

So what lay behind the Ethiopian attacks?

Indications from Addis Ababa are that the background to the raid may be more complex than simply giving Eritrea-based rebels a bloody nose.

Three camps belonging to a faction of the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Arduf) were attacked, in reprisal for an rebel raid on tourists in January that left five people dead.

Border troubles

Certainly there are few tears being shed by Ethiopia for the approximately 50 Afar rebels who are thought to have been killed in the attack.

But Ethiopian observers suggest that other factors may have contributed to the raid.

A number of skirmishes are reported to have taken place in border villages in recent months, with some Ethiopians allegedly abducted by Eritrean forces.

Worryingly, the last war between the two countries in May 1998 was triggered by similar skirmishes.

 

Since that conflict ended, some border villages have been inhabited by members of the Eritrean opposition, with Ethiopia’s backing.

These are in areas awarded to Ethiopia by the Algiers Peace Agreement of June 2000 and the findings of a subsequent Boundary Commission.

Eritrea has repeatedly called on the international community to enforce the Algiers Agreement and the Boundary Commission ruling, but Ethiopia has refused to allow this, insisting that there should be further talks on the border.

This has left the location of the border in dispute, opening the way to localised disputes.

Speaking for Eritrea, Mr Ali said he was not prepared to discuss the details of the current clashes.

“This is a smokescreen,” he said, “which disguises Ethiopia’s non-implementation of the findings of the Boundary Commission.”

“This is a continuation of Ethiopian aggression and occupation of our territory, which has gone on for the last 10 years, with the support of the United States.”

Difficult to predict

But unresolved border issues may not be the only reason for the clash.

There are Ethiopian plans to develop potash mines in the remote Danakil depression, near the border with Eritrea, with the help of the Canadian firm, Allana.

This would require building a railway from the Djibouti port of Tadjoura to the mines and the redevelopment of the port itself.

Allana reported earlier this month that it had received indications of investments worth $600m from investors in the project.

Ethiopia is keen for the development to take place, but is determined to ensure that it is not attacked by Afar rebels operating in the area.

Following the end of the border war in 2000, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have remained tense, with both countries supporting each other’s opposition movements.

On balance, most observers believe that a new war between the two countries looks unlikely, although both are ruled by mercurial leaders whose next moves have proved difficult to predict.

Ethiopia’s Meles Zenawi and Eritrea’s Isaias Afewerki fought together to oust Ethiopia’s military ruler Haile Mariam Mengistu.

But just seven years after they achieved that goal in 1991, the pair sent their forces into battle against each other.

BBC website

 

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8 COMMENTS
  • How March 21, 2012

    you both rock head leaders, can’t you think one day to leave in peace, don’t you feel the suffering of your people. what did both of you benefit from the war in the past except loosing thousands of fruit full youngsters on both side of the country. Enough is enough if both of you don’t have sense you need to get reed of your postion. WE the people in both nation we can not tolerate no more.

    • haki ytakeb March 22, 2012

      hakinet entezihlweke gegena felika kizab tikal neyrka.nkunat ztmne yelen.bzkone kemmegletska niklitiau hizbi kam hade hizbi mglatska neti gega zigebere ashish elka kem nay kilitio merahti gegenatat mkanom kab geletska,kemzi zirdaani hanti ethiopia eka tibl zeleka mo ati merahika agame antetegagyu zifesis dem natka sle zikone kitkaleso fetin.nihna dima kemou.azi halayi mesilka midngar gdefo.kabaka nilaali hizbi eritrea sultunn nukuhn atahasasba eu zelewo.agame ante koynka aka kurub tigriyna tifelt sle zikonka dahan.gin amharay koynka eu zimaani mo balka eka handef elka atika himamka eka tigeltselna neyrkamo yftahala.

      • menale March 22, 2012

        haki ytakeb
        kezab agame yourself. you have heart losser.

        • haki ytakeb March 23, 2012

          menale………nateys dahan agame ykun aykun gin tsbuq geru tesemiaka do?abey zinebeka HADAMI daaka niska nseb kezab tibl?awe hijji ata hager zemtsaa ms aamtsaa bgoni koynka ageme do wedi agame tibl aleka neta zsenkelkula hager nab kalia hager ketetemqeni hijji.niada hade terati hadami zikonka awet mistemezgebe kab wshateka wetsika sebay kitmesl mftanka naay aygermenin eu.abkndi kitkebr ziteqaleskulkas tserfi?thalmo antealiu gin kontu tiray eu.melishka nab zigedede ketihadm hijji yakleka.rograg atine.

  • truth March 22, 2012

    I don’t think that the dispute is because of the hate of the two government to each other only but also the hate of the people in each countries to each other.
    As an Eritrean community living in Australia, we don’t have any relation with any Ethiopian people, because they are our enemies,
    these Ethiopian who live here also hate any Eritrean citizens.
    so from this one can conclude that Ethiopia and Eritrean will never ever be in a peace. and will not ever never love each others people.
    and we should make our relation strong with people of Sudan and the rest Arab, we have more blood relation with Sudan than with Ethiopia. we have similar culture, similar language and similar color with our neighbor Sudan. as every Eritrean is a decedent of Arab, we should unite and make good deal with our people of Sudan.
    see you guys next time

    • Michael March 22, 2012

      Wedi komarit eka….how on earth you dare to say Eritreans have more similarity with Sudan than with Ethiopia…you are just a moron who already sold his identity. whether u like or not, eritreans more related to ethiopia both in terms of culture, language and strategy. Peace is very important for both nations.

      • haki ytakeb March 23, 2012

        AZI BAHAKI ETHIOPIAWI KIKOWN ALEWO.WEY DULDUL MITASSAR ZELEWO AB ADDISN AWASSAN ZITSAFAA ZELO KEYKOWN.NSUDAN MSANA KETEASASROM ZIKAL,KEMEY GERU YKHDO.

    • Aka_sekurity@yahoo.com March 26, 2012

      Do realize what you are saying. You are just ignorant so keep your ignorance for your self. Do you know the geez letters are used only by eritrean and ethiopian, that is one example of similarity out of thousand. So as i said before keep your ignorance for your self or go educate your self. From the way you talk you seem to be tigre. And by the way I’m Eritrean. And I would always open my heart to ethiopians and to any human being. I love Ethiopians they are good hearted ppl.

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