The Time After Isaias Afeworki Left

By Petros Tesfagiorgis A rumour has spread that Isaias Afewerki has suffered heart attack and he is in Dubai/Abu Dhabi for treatment. Some people were hopeful that it may be his last and the pains and

By Petros Tesfagiorgis

A rumour has spread that Isaias Afewerki has suffered heart attack and he is in Dubai/Abu Dhabi for treatment. Some people were hopeful that it may be his last and the pains and suffering of the population will end.   I searched on website to see if is true. But there was none. It could be the boys playing monkeys, trying to win him some sympathy from the public and give him an Independence Day gift. It is wise not to post rumours in social media without any confirmation.

However, we are all mortals and one day Isaias will pass away. The Ghedli generation is ageing and many are dying one by one. The rumour may be false but it represents a timely, serious wake up call.

The critical question is, when dictator Isaias passes away what will happen to Eritrea? Who takes over?    Eritrea has no Government structure and no institutions.  Isaias runs the country as he likes, with no accountability to the people, not even to his own party; he runs it with the help of few loyal collaborators. If something happens to him there is no vice-president who would take over immediately; no institutions to carry any form of transition.  There will be power vacuum, and it can only give rise for generals to compete for power. Such scenario may lead to armed clashes. Imagine armed clash in a country where the regime has forced civilians to take up arms.  (1 see photo)

At the same time, the diaspora political and civic organisations will be caught unprepared, as they haven’t so far and will not be able to contribute towards smooth transition of power. But, it doesn’t have to be like that. They can   develop a common strategy to deal with the change. A major obstacle to developing a common strategy is that they are not yet united – united in their outlook. It needs unity to reach consensus to adopt a common strategy for transfer of power. Coming with a strategy and popularising can also empower the people not particularly the Diaspora, but our people who are inside too. Empowered they will have a say in the decisions that shapes their destiny. Also, whether we like or not many Foreign Governments will pay more attention; they will be concerned that Eritrea may repeat the Experiences of Libya and other situations of chaos in the absence of a prepared people for change. They will face problem to try to mediate and help to see smooth transition. Who can they talk to? But, if they are united, they will be the first to be consulted in order to get a clear understanding of the situation to help them to offer critical help.

The Diaspora political and civic organisations can play a major role in transition. They are in a comfortable position to contribute to smooth transition. They live in a free society and they can mobilize opinions towards what kind of Government the people want to see.  They can organise consultations, conferences, workshops and all sorts of meetings to that end. The contribution of our intellectuals is essential.

Unfortunately most of the diaspora activities are of a re-active nature, they react to what the regime does and says. They are not proactive. To react to events is essential and can be productive but not sufficient. For those justice seekers, reaction has become an end in itself. Planned and coordinated activities to achieve the overall objectives to bring a democratic change is missing.

There are two recent examples of a reaction that is occupying all the time spaces of the opposition.   One is peace with Ethiopia – when the new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he wants to make peace with Eritrea. The other concerns the embargo or UN sanction against Eritrea – to be lifted or to continue. I will deal with them on part 2.

Mothers doing all the farming work including repair of houses in the absence of the father and young to serve in the army or development without pay.

 

The end

  1. A phot of mothers repairing their mad houses

 

 

 
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72 COMMENTS
  • Wedi Hagher May 20, 2018

    “the reason for this disunity is that we don’t know what the real root cause is/are. ”

    Simon G.

    Brother, our problems are not easy to solve but with good will there is a way to bring peace to Eritrea.
    What is missing is unity among political groups. Thanks God, despite all problems we have, there is no civil war. Eritrea has survived attempts by all its colonizers and oppressors starting from Hailesellasie to Higdef to let people fight each other.
    So what are exactly the problems we are facing ?. There are plenty of them but we should address to most important ones.
    In my humble opinion they are listed below:

    1. A full blown dictatorship, that different political groups characterize differently, hence difference in approach of handling it.
    2. Lack of legal framework for any political activity, because there is no constitution.
    3. Decades old mistrust among different groups carried over from pre-independence era.
    4. Lack of responsible leadership.
    5..Lack of open and sincere debate on the most important national issues.

    I think this much is enough, but you can add to it or remove from it.

  • rezen May 20, 2018

    Subject: The Time After Isaias Afeworki Left, By Petros Tesfagiorgis, May 19, 2018

    Quote: “No one is asking for secession or disintegration, at least not yet.” Unquote, Tes May 20, 2018
    Commentary, 20 May 2018
    Let us quote the immortal TWO WORDS of Issayas Afewerki, Abraha , the Creator and Leader of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) and the absolute dictator President of the State of Eritrea, all in an uninterrupted period of time of fifty-four yeas:!!! Yes, 54 uninterrupted years. By the way. let History be the witness, WE ERITREANS nourished, cajoled and worshiped THE DEVIL. Here are his two immortal Tigrigna words : “ከርእየክን እየ”

    And so, the last four words of Tes’ quotation above are dignified warning to all of us by one of us. It is my opinion that what we are doing in the Internet with bravado carelessness and uncontrolled emotional spray of words will lead us to “secession or disintegration”. It is NOT farfetched. It is a distinct possibility. Issyas will show us how!!!

    But, all in all, it is our OWN doing, using RELIGION (that cancerous disease), REGION (assistant to religion) and multitude of other parochial matters (assurance for disintegration) that divide us, rather than uniting us.

    One hundred and thirty-five years (135 years) of experience has molded us to be walking zombies – unable to distinguish between right or wrong (between beneficial or destruction) to our LIFE. THE END
    ————————————————————

    Post Script

    Dear Readers: Permit me to be daring >>> What did WE (each of us) learn (observed) from the above sixty-two (62) commentaries? At the very least, let us be TRUTHFUL to OURSELVES.

  • Tesfai May 20, 2018

    Petros writes, “… “Unfortunately most of the diaspora activities are of a re-active nature, they react to what the regime does and says. They are not proactive.”

    It has hard to see an Eritrea without the core of the EPLF. After Isaias, Eritrea may be history. There are no young people to build and protect nor a worthy leadership. Fear for Eritrea.

  • andit May 21, 2018

    Do not worry he has already written a will and will give us before he dies. At least his will will be much better than loughable oppositions will which is not yet written.

    • Gezae May 24, 2018

      An old shoes[SHIDA] is much better than bare foot. Long Live Eritrea

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