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The Horne of Africa Alliance: Can Isayas Change his Feather to Flock Together?

The Horne of Africa Alliance:   Can Isayas Change his Feather to Flock Together? Following home cleaning and having succeeded in making alliance with his people, the Ethiopian Prime Minister (EPM), Dr. Abiy Ahmed, devised his big

The Horne of Africa Alliance:   Can Isayas Change his Feather to Flock Together?

Following home cleaning and having succeeded in making alliance with his people, the Ethiopian Prime Minister (EPM), Dr. Abiy Ahmed, devised his big picture for the whole Horne of Africa region.  He made lightning visits to the Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia to explain his new plan.  He even self-invited himself to visit the problem country of the region, Eritrea of Isayas.

Unlike the visits to the other Horne of Africa countries, the EPM’s visit to Eritrea was not a surprise visit.  Isayas admitted to taking two weeks to prepare, yet he had not much to say in his welcoming visit to the EPM at the State Dinner.  In response, the EPM, Dr. Abiy, made a lengthy speech.

In his speech, the EPM made it clear that Isayas had shifted his perspective from demanding first the return of Badume to normalization of relationship.  Thus, Isayas is now agreeable to Second (normalization) first and First (return of Badume) second in that to get along first as neighbors in order to advance the proposed collective interest of the region only.

It appears that the EPM convinced Isayas that his big picture of the region, as a multi-nations alliance, should not face at its initiation disruptive issues, like unsettled border problems.  According to the EPM, the “No Peace, No War” failed both of the countries.  The admission of the EPM gave reason to Isayas to believe that that problem was the cause for his leadership failure and not because he was bad at handling with the country’s problems.

The EPM, lest not be misquoted, made it clear that the proposed strategic alliance will consist of those already expressed their willingness to become members plus Eritrea to be added to list after it said “Yes” to the proposed alliance.  He appeared to explain that the multi-nations alliance will consist of independent nations with their defined borders whose lands (the crossing of borders) will be bridged by their peoples’ hearts of love for each other.

The member countries of the proposed alliance will abolish their border checks allowing free movement of people and monies.  There will be emerging markets, employability, business opportunities and developments.  As such, there will be shared risks and responsibilities that necessitate some rigidities (rule of law) to resolve problems that arise from businesses conducted in another country within the proposed alliance.

What to Expect? Self-Driving or Self-Adjusting Changes

The member countries of the proposed alliance with their open border policies will first focus on creating structural rigidities that will help them to develop uniform governance and practices.  Because the open border will have impacts on individual freedom, housing and cross-border businesses helping to promote long term stabilities and economic prosperities, the participating countries will need to assign coordinating bodies to deal with all rigidities.

The cohesiveness of the member countries will result in exceeding the expected outcomes.  In the process of the self-adjusting changes, existing flaws will be corrected and those stuck in non-working patterns will find alternatives that enable them to foster their working relationships.

Prior to giving effect to their open border policies, each member country will be asked to heighten its attention to all collective priorities that include home cleaning.  The home cleaning will help to build trust and all-round good relationships among the member countries.  For better interactive engagement, the member countries are required to be corruptions free, their people to be treated with decency and not like slaves as well as their rule of law and not fears to be the command of the sovereign.  The rule of law should be backed by enforcers in order to fight corruption and impose compliance, accountability and transparency successfully.

For better self-driving changes, each member country has to make compromises in order to provide flexibilities and enable cooperation.  Indeed, internal tensions and problems can hamper the proposed alliance’s mitigation strategies regarding risk avoidance or transference.

The self-driving changes are the product of the open border policies and the changes are activated and auto-piloted by the free movement of the people and monies to invest in service and industries within the alliance’s member countries.  The rigidities in place are supposed to control disruption by those who oppose the changes.

Can Isayas Absorb the Shocks of the Change?

The home cleaning is the hardest part of the change for Isayas.  Firstly, Isayas has to take responsibility and ownership for all failures under his leadership.  He should apologize for playing blame games for the past and current damages caused to the Eritrean people.  Secondly, he should express his preparedness to wrap up his provisional administration that was supposed to be de-colonization process for two years during which constitution was to be framed, approved and implemented, followed by free elections.

Since Eritrea has to be operated by constitution (rule of law) prior to joining the proposed alliance, Isayas has to allow the people to elect a body of representatives for national unity and reconciliation led by an elected person.  Thence, all political prisoners will have to be released and political parties (the opposition groups) to be allowed to return back enabling them to participate in reviewing the reviewed and approved constitution.  Necessary steps on how to implement the constitution have to be agreed upon by those authorized to do so.  Only when and upon completion of the election, the elected representatives of the Eritrean people can approve of the proposed alliance.

The EPM in his own words, the Eritrean and Ethiopian peoples should have the right to travel out of their respective countries and travel back with dignity and respect.  But such a reality under the present rule of Isayas is very bizarre and impossible.  Since in the absence of rule of law in Eritrea, individual freedom to set on free movement is impossible making the border of the country meaningless it renders the alliance with Eritrea of Isayas meaningless.

Unless the proposed alliance is to set free an isolated tyrant who is accused of crimes against humanity, the State of Eritrea at its present state is not qualified to participate on equal footing.  The acceptance of Eritrea’s membership in the alliance should be conditionally and subject to completing its home cleaning process appropriately.  Otherwise, empowering the hostage holder will only help to toughen his grip depriving his hostages of their only and remaining liberty of breathing air freely.

In the eyes of the hostages, it will be wise of Isayas to immediately declare home cleaning.  Just matching what Dr. Abiy Ahmed did will suffice to begin with.  The rest can be left for the constitution to take care of and ensure participation of Eritrea in the proposed alliance without inherent disruption and internal tension that may cause instabilities to the collective interest.

Unless collective alliance is supported by equal and shared cleanliness is bound to fail.

Mamino

 

 

 

 

 

aseye.asena@gmail.com

Review overview
31 COMMENTS
  • Hagherawi July 11, 2018

    Eseyas and Higdef are trying to survive by embracing Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s peace movement, but want, at the same time, to keep in place, one of the most cruel regimes on planet.
    There are more than 350 prisons scattered throughout the country, in which more than 10000 innocent people are languishing, for more than two decades.
    How can a regime like that make peace with Ethiopia, unless it does peace first with its own people.
    Eseyas is a hopeless person. He and all his men can continue to survive only by killing more innocent people.
    And now with peace movement, they are not left with many options.
    They must go.

  • Asmara Eritrea July 11, 2018

    The contrast between the gentle Ethiopian leader, Dr Abiy and the thuggish Isaias could not have been clearer than that shown by the images of recent days. Isaias was laughing and smiling constantly as if a child has been given an unexpected sweet, forgetting he had led tens of thousands of our fellow Eritreans to their death during the unnecessary war with Ethiopia between 1998 and 2000, not to mention the thousands he killed during the armed struggle. My view is Isaias should be tried and then hang in Idga Hamus (Thursday Market) as criminals used to in the 1960s and his body left there hanging for days as an example to others.

    The $64k question is will the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea last? Fat chance!
    There will not be peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia as long as Isaias is alive. Only when he is 6 feet under will the two brotherly nations start to live in harmony and peace. Isaias is a street gangster and a thug who does not know the meaning of peace.

    I applaud Dr Abiy for his initiative and he is sort of a leader Africa needs. But I think he wasted his time on this occasion. I would suggest to Dr Abiy to hold fire until Isaias is out of the equation, which will not be too long now.

    Eritrea forever, death to dictatorship.

  • Hagherawi July 11, 2018

    ” … I think he wasted his time on this occasion. “.

    I disagree. Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Eritrea, and his direct peace message to Eritreans at home was good. Although he called, for a kind of “unity” that many Eritreans now consider a thing of the past.
    “Enidemer, we are one people … no borders ..etc”, practically, things cannot go that way. We need friendship, peace and good neighborliness with borders demarcated. Only in that context, we can be brothers and sisters who enjoy good relations and a durable peace.

    ” My view is Isaias should be tried and then hang in Idga Hamus (Thursday Market) as criminals used to in the 1960s and his body left there hanging for days as an example to others.”

    I fully agree.
    A person who caused 20 to 30 thousand deaths, by starting a war without consulting anybody, should be held accountable for high treason which cannot go unpunished.
    His end may be like that of Benito Mussilini or his friend Gaddafi.
    Those who live by sword die by it.

    • Amanuel July 11, 2018

      Agree 100%. Game was over not only for weyane but the other face of same coin aregit sirat hgdf too. The two countries hit hard rock and were at situation they could not move. The only way forward is internal reconsilation, forgiveness, apologies and external problem resolution. This is being done at lightning speed in Ethiopia. Can the tyranny keep the statusqo for little bit longer? No. B/s all cards and excuses are non existent now. Sirat iseyas ab gizie selam kikixil aykielin eyu. Badme hingugun weyanen yelewan, Barnet bshim agelglot aytikixiln eya. Nsa tirah ekilti eya. Add to that the age and health condition of the old guards. Habirna bun kinseti eka aykealnan. Tetefaninka adi kem adi kitkixil aytikielin eya. Atearaki kem abiy aynet Hasab hizu zimexie tirah eyu nertra keseguma zikiel. Abu dima iseyas Tera kihiluwo ayhisebin eyu. Silezi game over is for both weyane and hgdfn eyu. Kilite Dem nixuhat zefsesun zitexawetun. Amlakwin nexa aykisedomn eyu.

  • Haben July 11, 2018

    The writer naively assume that Eseyas will change his colour.
    I can only assume the writer was born yesterday. It’s not a question of If, but when Eseyas will fell out with PMAA( Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed). PMAA is filling up Eseyas’ ego by acting to be his foreign minister, probably knowing the fact that Eseyas does not take a subordinate role. PMAA has got the best deal- free ports. PFDJ’s crime syndicates will resort to their usual way of conducting businesses- illicit and contraband businesses- where Eritrean Embassies in Addis will be used for such illegal deals. Remember, when Eritrea became the “Net Coffee Export” in the 1900s. This scenario was on Eseyas’ mind when he said we have lost 25 years. In other words, let’s wind the clock back to 1993: I want to a boss of “mama Ethiopia”. You can have the whole Eritrea if you want, so long as I am the king of 105m people. You need to shower me with praises and acclaims for bring mama Ethiopia” from a brink.

    Will Eseyas fulfil his dreams? No, as ever, Eseyas has neither the capability, nor vision, to govern “mama Ethiopia”. He thinks he knows Ethiopia, but little did he know Ethiopia has changed for the better. It is not the same Ethiopia of 1991. The country has become self-confident and assertive. Eseyas will not play his card again: blackmailing and threat. It will not work this time round. It is difficult to predict, how long PMAA and Ethiopians will tolerate Eseyas’ antics and erratic behaviour. When Eseyas does not get his ways, he reverts to his only weapon-start a conflict. The guy has never lived in peace, after all.

  • AHMED SALEH !!! July 11, 2018

    To answer the question if Issaias can
    change his feather to flock together
    is can you teach new tricks for an
    old dog . I doubt he will change .
    Two leaders with two opposite personalities can not get along for
    extended period .
    The question is about a person credibility , honesty & goodwill .
    Overnight an evil person can not change into an angel . It is facts in
    life regardless what people expect .

  • Sol July 11, 2018

    Home cleaning is a night mare for DIA. Should he had/has a good will towards Eritrea and its people he shouldn’t let the golden opportunity pass when the G 15 asked him to conduct home cleaning and reformation but since his mission was and still is to destroy Eritrean pride beyond repair.

  • Sol July 11, 2018

    Addition
    Since his mission was and still is to destroy Eritrean pride beyond repair he will continue his dirty and brutal rule

  • Haben July 11, 2018

    I posted this comment earlier, but for some unknown reason to me, it appeared for few minutes and disappeared. Why?

    The writer naively assumes that Eseyas will change his colour.
    I can only assume he was born yesterday. It’s not a question of if, but, when Eseyas will fell out with PMAA (Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed). PMAA is filling up Eseyas’ ego by acting to be his foreign minister, probably knowing the fact that Eseyas does not take a subordinate role. He has got the best deal- free ports. PFDJ crime syndicates will resort to their usual way of conducting businesses- illicit and contraband businesses- where Eritrean Embassies in Addis will be used for such illegal deals. Remember, when Eritrea became the “Net Coffee Export” in the 1900s. This scenario was on Eseyas’ mind when he said we have lost 25 years. In other words, let’s wind the clock back to 1993: I want to a boss of “mama Ethiopia”. You can have the whole Eritrea if you want, so long as I am the king of 105m people. You need to shower me with praises and acclaim for bring mama Ethiopia” from a brink.

    Will Eseyas fulfil his dreams? No, as ever, Eseyas has neither the capability, nor vision, to govern “mama Ethiopia”. He thinks he knows Ethiopia, but little did he know Ethiopia has changed for the better. It is not the same Ethiopia of 1991. The country has become self-confident and assertive. Eseyas will not play his card: blackmailing and threat. It will not work this time round. It is difficult to predict, how long PMAA and Ethiopians will tolerate Eseyas’ antics and erratic behaviour. When Eseyas does not get his ways, he reverts to his only weapon-start a conflict. The guy has never lived in peace, after all.

  • Haben July 11, 2018

    Many Eritreans who live in the west are ecstatic and welcome the peace agreement. But the tricky question is: who has given or denied them peace? Eritreans did not make any decision or participate in the conflict, so how can then they are now part of the peace agreement. You can’t make a peace with an imaginary foe. The enemy is within. We are now back to square one and Eseyas’ second adventure will start in earnest. Our memory of his last adventure is fading away. We are now turning in to “Full blow totalitarian state”. Eseyas’ heir to the throne is his eldest son.

    • Hagherawi July 11, 2018

      “Eseyas’ heir to the throne is his eldest son.”

      Haben

      We sow the pictures of a tall young man who looks like his aging father.
      Abraham Iseyas most probably knows well that, the overwhelming majority of young Eritreans of his age, are living away from Eritrea and their families because of his father and his extremely cruel regime.
      It’s would be totally stupid and naive of him, if he still thinks he can inherit his fathers crimes and continue ruling the country with iron and fire.
      The generals may use him to continue running the extermination gulags, in which thousands of innocent people are kept in dehumanizing conditions, similar to that of Soviet gulags. But even that possibility seems unlikely, because he cannot easily master his father’s cunning and the skill set required to keep the whole society in disarray.
      Higdef is running out options, they are not left with many. It’s either peace and normalization of internal situation of the country, that finally is also at peace with its arch enemy, or sooner or later the crisis will reach a breaking point.
      As they cannot live without enemies, are they planning to turn Sudan to the next enemy ?
      Soon we will know.

      • Tiblets July 11, 2018

        Why not the handsome {like his father Esayas} Abraham Esayas inherit the hot seat and the Asmara’s State Palace from his father?? Bashar al-Assad did inherit from his father.

        • Simon G. July 12, 2018

          ትሕመቕ:
          ሓቅኺ!
          That’s why is his country, Syria, is highly civilized and a peaceful nation.
          ከማኽን ወዲ ከማኽን ሒዝካ ዓዲ ክሓልፈላ?

  • Danilo July 11, 2018

    I have nothing against Dr Abi Ahmed because he is doing his home work. Unfortunately, he is dealing with self appointed man who has blood on his hands.

    • Yitbarekh July 11, 2018

      Danilo Dracula, you have your criminal ELF gangsters thick blood in your teeth & in your filthy tummy/stomach. Your criminal self-appointed ELF gangsters should be buried 6 feet under the desert.

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